To calculate your profit or loss on a MOVE contract, compute your ‘pay-off’ minus your ‘premium’.
The Profit/Loss of a MOVE position can be calculated as follows:
Profit/ Loss = Pay−off +/− Premium
Pay−off = Num_of_contracts ∗ Mark Price
Profit / Loss = − Premium + (Num_of_contracts ∗ Mark Price)
Pay−off = − Num_of_contracts ∗ Mark Price
Profit / Loss = Premium − Num_of_contracts * Mark Price
Longing a MOVE contract is profitable when the BTC/ETH price either rises or falls from the strike price by more than the total premium paid. Shorting a MOVE contract is profitable when the price rises or falls from the strike price by less than the total premium paid.
If you buy a move contract with strike price 6500 for $150, then you will make money only if the price is above 6650 or below 6350. In this way, the MOVE price that’s trading in the market tells you what is priced in. You thus make money when what happens to be priced in is incorrect.